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傅高义:中美关系与青年的角色(中英文对照)

作者:傅高义/文,王煜楠翻译

《中美印象》第253期

【编者按:本文是作者在第五届中美青年学者论坛上的主旨讲话。本论坛由《环球时报》、美国卡特中心以及北京大学中外人文交流基地联合举办。作者授权《中美印象》发表这份中英文讲话。傅高义教授是美国最著名的中国问题专家之一,哈佛大学资深教授,费正清中国研究中心前主任。文章原标题:中美关系的现状与未来以及新一代青年的角色。】

In 1879, a woman made history by traveling around the world faster than anyone ever before, in 72 days. Since then continuing development in technology of transportation and communication is bringing people of the world closer together. Now we have no choice but to find ways to work with each other. As you are embarking on your careers, the key problems the world confronts, -- pandemics, global warming, orderly international trade, the control of weapons of mass destruction –require close cooperation between the people and governments around the world, especially between the two most powerful nations, China and the United States.

1879 年,有一位女士在72 天内环游世界,创造了史上最快绕行地球一圈的历史。从那时起,交通和通讯技术的发展拉近了人们之间的距离,也使得不同国家的公民必须找到在同一片天空下合作生存的方式。正在走向职场的你们要知道,像全球疫情、气候变化、军控等全球性议题迫切地需要国家与国家、政府与政府之间的协作——尤其是在两个最强大的国家之间:中国与美国。

As you know, during the last several years instead of the United States and China making progress in working together, we have grown more contentious, making it more difficult to cooperate for our common good. A key challenge for your generation is how to manage our rivalry, to find ways for American and Chinese people and our governments to work together.

正如你们所了解,最近几年以来,中国与美国之间协作不多,冲突不少。中美关系中的非议与争执让两国之间为了共同利益的协作变得越来越难。对于你们这一代人而言,管控中美关系中敌对的成分将会是一个重要的挑战:你们要找到办法,让中国与美国的民众与政府能够共同努力合作。

Our Rivalry

中国与美国的竞争

As the two countries compete for economic and political dominance, mutual antagonism has grown. As you know, throughout history an existing dominant power and a rising power often end up fighting because unplanned incidents set off conflicts. Military technology continues to advance, and a conflict could be more devastating than any war in history, leaving no winner, only losers.

今天,中国与美国正在为了经济、政治上的优势展开竞赛,而双方的敌意因此日益增长。在历史上,“崛起国”与“守成国”之间的竞争常常会因为一些计划外的国际事件而卷入军事冲突。因为军事科技的快速发展,在今天,这样的一场冲突可能会比历史上任何一场战争都要更有破坏性;这样的一场冲突中将不会有赢家,只会两败俱伤。

The rivalry between China and the United States is now spreading to almost every field. Our governments and companies contend for economic supremacy. Our nations compete for political influence and for hearts and minds around the world. Militaries compete in advanced weaponry that might allow them to prevail in a military conflict.

现在的中美竞争几乎已经扩散到所有领域:美国政府和企业为了经济优势与中国展开竞争,而美国也在扩展自己的政治影响,争取国际支持。在军事上,为了在一场潜在的军事冲突中占据上风,两国之间也展开了武器科技上的“军备竞赛”。

The rivalries arouse deep passion in both countries. Americans, accustomed to dominating the world for three decades since the collapse of the Soviet Union, become upset at Chinese assertiveness. Chinese, pained by the memory of dominating foreigners for over a century of humiliation, are determined to stop yielding to foreigners. We need to find ways to manage the rivalry constructively.

两国之间的竞争也逐步白热化:早已习惯于在苏联解体后做世界霸主的美国开始对中国的自信感到不快,而有着遭受近一个世纪外国统治的屈辱记忆的中国也决心不再向外国人卑躬屈膝。在这样的情况下,我们必须找到能够建设性管控中美竞争的方法。

The danger of attacking foreigners to promote domestic unity

攻击外国以维护本国团结:危险的手段

The speed of changes around the world disrupts lives everywhere, making it difficult for national leaders to maintain wholehearted public support. Maintaining unity is hard even for small countries like Canada, Spain, and Iraq. Large countries face even more difficulties. The Soviet Union collapsed. Leaders of the United States and China seeking widespread public support often find it useful to criticize foreign powers that challenge them.

世界局势的风云变幻影响了很多人的生活,也令各个国家的领导人更加难以维持本土的民意支持;对像加拿大、西班牙和伊朗等国家来说,维护国家团结都已经是不那么容易的任务,而大国则面临更多的挑战。过去的世界大国苏联早已因此解体,而中美领导人在试着获取民意支持的时候,却发现了一个很有效的策略:批评试图挑战他们的“境外势力”。

American difficulties in maintaining unity. In the 1950s when I was embarking on my career, America was relatively united. We had not been badly damaged by war and our economy was by far the largest in the world. Our industrial base had no rival and other countries wanted our products. We had full employment and national confidence. Democrat and Republican leaders cooperated for our national good. We were prepared to be generous in supporting international organizations and helping other countries so they would not feel the need to go to war.

美国在维护国家团结方面的困难:当我在 1950 年代开始我的职业生涯时,美国的民意还相对比较团结。那时的美国没有受到战争的摧残,而当时的经济依旧是世界第一。美国的工业实力在世界范围内仍旧没有对手,而其他国家都青睐美国制造的产品。那时候的美国就业充分,国民对自己的国家很有自信。民主党人和共和党人在那时为了国家利益而合作,而美国也全力支持国际组织的发展,大力援助其他国家而使其不致走上战争的道路。

Our technology continued to advance and we began to produce more farm and factory products with fewer people. In 1946 we had 6 million farm families and by 2000 there were scarcely 2 million, producing more agricultural products. As industrialized nations recovered from the war and as other nations learned to industrialize, workers abroad were prepared to work for salaries lower than American workers. With technology advances and reduced transport costs, goods produced abroad could be sold in the United States at low prices, benefitting our consumers. By 2010 there were only 13 million jobs in manufacturing, a loss of 7 million jobs since 1980. As a result of loss of agricultural and manufacturing jobs which supplied relatively stable employment, the communities around those factories and farms also lost income.

美国的科技持续进步,农业也得益于此继续机械化,用更少的人力获得了更多的产品。在 1946 年,美国有将近六百万从事农业活动的家庭;这个数字在 2000 年下降至不到两百万,但我们生产了更多的农产品。在二战后,世界上其他工业国家从战争的创伤中逐步恢复,也参考了美国工业化中的经验,而他们的工人也愿意接受比美国工人更低的工资。

America has made considerable progress since my youth, --in education, science, and technology but we have not handled well the transition away from the relatively stable large-scale industrial and agricultural employment base that helped support the surrounding communities. America has developed a sizeable service sector, but incomes are too unequal. Some businesses and business leaders have grown very rich but pay workers very little. Our nation has spent too much for the military and military activities abroad and not enough on modernizing our infrastructure and providing universal medical care.

在我年轻的时候,美国在教育和科技领域有着长足的进步,但也在工业转型方面有所不足:我们没能很好地处理那些过去的大规模工农业基地,这些产业对当地社群的就业帮助重大。美国发展出了庞大的服务业产业,但产业人员收入并不平等。一些企业和企业高管由此收益,收入颇丰,但他们并没有给他们的员工支付足够的薪水。我们的国家在军事领域投入了太多的资金,以至于没能够兼顾基础建设设施现代化,也没能给国民提供普适性的公立医疗保险。

America lacks a national educational system to provide a quality education with a standard common perspective for the entire population. In my youth, America had several national TV stations. Cities had a very small number of newspapers which provided common sources of information to broad groups of people. With the growth of the internet, people who have similar views can now rely information from sources that agree with their point of view. We don’t get the same information and differences in peoples’ perspectives have hardened.

美国到今天都没有一个国家层面的教育制度,能够提供给所有国民均等的、高质量的教育。在我年轻的时候,美国有着一些国有的电视台,地方城市有一些纸媒给当地社群提供不同观点的信息。随着互联网的发展,人们开始能够“只看到他们想看到的”,而这使得不同人群之间观点的鸿沟日益扩大。

In World War II many blacks fought in our military along with whites, and after World War II, finally we began slowly to provide programs to reduce discrimination against blacks. Women also gradually found more opportunities in the work place. Poor white males who had fewer opportunities in factories and farms than in previous decades and who saw some black children get scholarships to universities where they could not afford to send their children are upset at the elite who support a system where they lack good wages and dignity.

在二战时期,黑人群体和白人群体一同站在战场上为国家拼搏;在二战后,我们的国家开始努力逐渐减少针对黑人社群的歧视,在工作场合中的女性也开始能够获得更多机会。不过,当有些并不富有的白人男性发现自己的就业机会比以前少,而一些非洲裔青年却能够通过奖学金去上他们并不能够支付得起的大学时,他们开始对政治菁英感到不满,因为他们认为国家没能给他们提供一个高收入且有尊严的就业环境。

Americans, especially those who face frustrations in their own society, are ready to respond positively to political leaders who blame China especially when they learn about things Chinese are doing that seem unfair and threatening: when they hear the Chinese government has created difficulties for American businesses in China while helping Chinese businesses, when the Chinese government punishes people who speak out publicly without trials, when Chinese companies acquire inside information from American companies or use electronic ways of gathering personal information about Chinese studying in the United States, when they hear that Chinese who built up small islands in the South China Sea and said they had no military purposes in mind later erect military facilities.

这些对社会现状感到不满的美国人正是那些会对政府对中国的指责感到满意的人,尤其当他们听到了那些中国政府看似不公和暴力的所作所为:他们听说中国政府给在华的美国企业制造困难,却给中国企业提供优惠;他们听说中国政府对在公共场合表达政治诉求的人不加审判而予以惩罚;他们听说中国通过在华美国企业、在美留学生和电子监听的形式获得美国机密;他们听说中国政府假借“非军事化”之名在南海填海造岛,建设军事设施。

Chinese Difficulties in Maintaining Unity. China confronts a huge problem in trying to unite 1.4 million people, the world’s largest population. Its diverse population includes several ethnic groups and some who have not yet shared the nation’s prosperity. Chinese people are fully aware of how China suffered in the 19th and 20th centuries because it could not unite. Many believe that national unity, achieved only after 1949, is sufficiently important that they are willing to accept constraints when speaking publicly.

中国在维护国家团结方面的困难:面对位居世界第一的 14 亿人口,中国在维护国家团结方面面临着一个巨大的挑战,尤其当中国有着复杂多样的人口构成,他们有着许多少数族裔群体,和一些并未享受到发展福利的人群。中国人民对自己在 19 和 20 世纪的屈辱历史有很深刻的认知,他们认为这主要是因为他们在那时并不团结,而许多人也认同在 1949 年后形成的国家团结意识非常重要。他们愿意因为这点牺牲自己一部分能在公共场合表达诉求的权利。

In late industrializing countries, economies grow rapidly when they are building their basic industrial structure, modern roads, railway, subways and steel plants. But now that the basic infrastructure construction is largely in place, Chinese people cannot expect their lives to improve as rapidly as before.

对于后发工业化国家而言,经济发展是迅速的,因为他们能够通过建设投资基础设施、现代道路、铁路、地铁和炼钢厂来获得收益;但对中国而言,当现在的基础设施建设已经几近充分的时候,中国人民很难再期待他们的生活能够再像过去一样有天翻地覆的改善。

After China began opening markets in the 1980s, some local governments and some private entrepreneurs began to accumulate their own wealth. When China had a socialist economy, it was easier for Beijing’s Communist Party and central government to maintain political control. But with the growth of local and private wealth it is more difficult to maintain control. What local leaders and businesspeople see as opportunities to pursue independent initiatives, Beijing sometimes see as corruption and dangerous localism. Beijing leaders facing these massive problems have chosen to exert tighter control over information and tighter surveillance over its population, aided by new technology, than do Western democracies.

当中国在 1980 年代实行改革开始时,一些地方政府和民间企业家因此积累了不少财富。在中国仍旧是社会主义公有制经济时,中央政府还能相对轻松的维持政治稳定;但当地方政府和民间企业家富起来时,维持政治稳定就是相对比较难的任务了。当地方政府和民间企业家从改革开放中看到追逐个人利益的机会时,中央政府看到的是腐败和潜在的地方主义威胁。面对这些政治问题,中央政府的策略是运用科技手段实施比西方国家更严格的信息管控、更全面的监控系统。

Beginning in the 1990s movies of World War II showing horrors committed by Japanese soldiers in World War II helped strengthen Chinese patriotism. Tensions with Japan peaked in 2008 to 2112 when the size of the Chinese economy was passing that of Japan’s. Now that the size of China’s economy is poised to overtake that of the U.S. economy, some Chinese leaders gain political support by attacking America for its unfair attacks on China. Nations need patriots ready to defend their country but we also need people who help their own country solve problems to achieve unity without attacking outsiders.

从九十年代开始,有关二战和抗日战争的中国电影展现了日军在二战期间在中国令人可憎的所作所为,也增强了中国人的爱国情怀。当 2008 年至 2012 年中国经济体量超过日本时,中日关系也达到了最紧张的地步。现在,中国的经济体量已经以超过美国为目标,而一些中国领导人也通过与美国相互攻讦来获得政治支持。诚然,一个国家需要爱国者来守卫他们的家国,但我们也同样需要一些人不通过对外转移矛盾,而通过致力解决本土问题来实现国家团结。

The Challenges for the Young People Embarking on their Careers

新一代青年在走向职场时将会遇到的挑战

You young people embarking on your careers must of course acquire skills to help you earn a living. In a world continuing to change rapidly, you cannot expect that the skills you learn as a young adult will prepare you for work decades later as the economy and technology change. After you learn skills, you must remain ready to adapt.

作为即将走向社会的年轻人,你们首先必须学会一门技能来维持生计。你们必须明白,在这个风云变幻的世界,当科技和经济发展迅速时,学会一门技能并不能保证让你们的余生都不必担心生计的问题。在学会一门技能之后,你们必须做好适应大环境的准备。

To manage the rivalry between China and the United States, we need people in both countries who acquire empathy for the people in the other country and seek to work with them. I have enjoyed good friendships with many Chinese and enjoy working with them. Chinese who study in the United States and Americans who study in China and make friends across national lines can be an enormous asset for helping our two countries work together. Some super-patriots from the other country may attack us and some in our own country may accuse us of being unpatriotic. I believe we are practicing a higher patriotism, a recognition that each of our countries needs good relations with the other country. It may not be easy for you to maintain such ties in the decades ahead but I hope you will find a way. Our two countries and the rest of the world need you.

为了管控中国与美国之间的竞争,我们需要两国的年轻人都对另一个国家的国民抱有同理心,并愿意和他们一同协作。我很高兴我有着一群来自中国的好朋友,并很乐意和他们维持良好的工作关系。我们需要学习了解美国的中国人,也需要学习了解中国的美国人,更需要愿意和不同国家的人做朋友的年轻人,他们将会是维持两国友好关系的重要因素。一些中国或美国的狂热爱国者或许会互相攻击,他们甚至会污蔑我们是不爱国的;但我愿意相信我们在践行更高层面的爱国主义,因为我们承认为了实现本国的发展,我们的国家需要与其他国家维持良好的关系。也许,维持中国与美国的联系在未来几十年会是一个艰巨的任务,但我仍旧希望你们能找到一条出路。中国与美国,以及世界上其他国家都需要像你们一样的人。
本文为《中美印象》原创作品,引用或者转发请注明来源。编辑:卢骁弈,张月如

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